Now that Silver and the miners have pulled back sharply, I am looking to invest in the miners again over the near term. I actually bought back some SILJ, SLVR, ASM, SBSW, AAGFF, and few others on Friday, but so far these are smaller purchases. If they continue the downward momentum early next week, I will double what I have just re-invested, as Silver was down almost $13 last week, and is far closer to support areas I like that it’s high at $120. I will also buy the recognizable names like CDE, HL, PAAS, and WPM along with some juniors that have been decimated in the pullback, some dropped more than 50%!

I will buy a lot more if SILJ can drop to its 12 month MA, only a few dollars away now, as the MA should be up near $24 by April 1, the new monthly print. See below the weekly stochastics are nearing oversold, lets wee how they look when next weeks starts, but the MACD weekly might still need some time to repair. I hope to be more fully invested before next Q1 earnings reports start being reported for miners in mid-May, as these will be their best reports in history. So, I am patiently waiting to get “heavy” again, and realize, even hope that my buys on Friday were early, and their prices drop a little further and run some more time down on the clock. In any case, another great buying opportunity lies in here somewhere, but as always, the most important part of any bet is the position sizes one take. I will stick to 3% total portfolio risk on these entries, and might even look to take some profits one the earnings news when they come out. In other words, this trade is likely not the long term buy and hold I advocated early in the bull, rather a trade around the intermediate cycles that last just a few months. I still think the general stock market is going to have a much deeper pullback (maybe after a short rally first because already oversold), and this could drag down the metals and miners for a better long-term entry again, maybe late in the year, like October or November. Then will look to buy and hold again for the remainder of the bull, which should still have a few years in it, and big percentage gains. It might take a little while, but I fully expect the metals and miners to make new all-time highs before the bull is finished.

And note this next chart is already over one week old, as the $CDNX closed Friday down at 911

So the juniors already broke that trendline, not good, but now lets look at the daily, where we see the $CDNX already at its 200 day MA, as good a time to try buys as any.

Readers know I am looking to re-deploy funds and profits taken last week. While the metals and miners have already pulled back in price to levels I consider attractive, I am waiting for more time to pass, as corrections are usually functions of both price and time. With price objectives met, I will wait for some time to pass, with the plan that if prices come back down to this area after 6-10 weeks (assuming they bounce soon, then drop again), or if prices just go sideways overall for a few weeks while technicals reset, then I will be ready to buy heavily again.

Also, the extreme volatility must be respected and accounted for, with smaller position sizes in order to contain risk. This forces smaller position sizes, so that when things calm down, one is not invested heavily enough for the next move higher. Much better to wait for some calm, let prices find an area where there are similar numbers of buyers and sellers, so that emotions calm down and. make it conducive to larger bet sizes. After all, position sizing is everything, and there is no need to step in front of a moving train. If I have to pay slightly higher prices but also have some time that has passed and reset the technicals, so be it, then I can place larger bets for a potentially more extended move higher again.

Gold has already dropped 21.5% from the high last week to the low yesterday, that should be enough to shake out many bulls, but things are volatile right now and a big move up or down from here would not shock me. So, its time to sit and keep our powder dry for the next setup. It could even come in energy, like coal and oil stocks, but my hunch is it will still be in the precious metals, there is very little chance that the bull is over in precious metals and miners.

What a ride its been! I have been busy lately, selling over 60% of our holdings, into the biggest spike in silver in history. We were fortunate to be selling all last week, just in front of the worst clobbering in silver’s history. Absolutely insane action, so I don’t have much time to write here today, just a quick update, and the charts to show the action. There is too much to talk about, like PSLV’s near-record discount to NAV, suggesting this bull market is far from over, as well as how I think this correction might play out, though its already pulled back enough in price that I am interested, but not enough time has passed. We need time for technicals to reset, for the biggest potential gains to resume, but with such a drastic pullback, it also would not surprise me to see silver trade back up to the highs soon, either. In any case, I do plan to add back shares in miners and PSLV, along with the SLVR and maybe SILJ etf, and will be happy to post here when I do. Its been a spectacular run and we have made a fortune, some of our LEAPS are up over 20x, most are up over 10x, as well as many miners’ shares up 7x-10x, truly remarkable gains in less than a year!

Historical moves are being made almost daily now. We still have just under 40% of our precious metals and miners holdings, heavily skewed to the miners now, since there are catalysts to help miners outperform over the next several months, such as blowout earnings reports starting next week, and even bigger upside surprises expected for next quarter’s results (Q1). The bull isn’t over, and sharp, scary corrections are a tell-tale sign that there is more upside to come. Media is now full of people forecasting silver at $200-$500 before the bull is over, a sign of short-term froth in the market, though they will likely be proven correct as this silver bull has already broke several records when compared to all past bull markets in the metal. Even gold, which has dropped 16% from its high already, in just a few days, still had its best monthly gain in the last 100 years, including the beating it took on the last day of January to close the month. The daily chart looks ugly, while stepping back to the weekly or monthly, one can barely see the weakness.

A sharp two-day bounce has silver well over $50 again, and while I cannot pretend to know if the correction is over, at least it is providing some breathing room. On top fo that, several miners are already right back up to their bull market highs, such as HL, and others like DSVSF already made new highs! Its a strong bull, after all, so those patting themselves on tha back for selling everything, now might seem to smart, as they have to decide when to get back in. I was a seller of 1/3 of our positions, but once the corrections reached 25% or more, started buying back into mining shares. No doubt its possible they drop again to test the lows or make new marginal lows, but that is the worst case scenario at this point, in my opinion, and should be followed by new bull market highs soon after. The longer silver stays over $50, the better the odds that the correction is over, and a close this week above $50.10 would be the highest weekly close of this bull market. As I type, silver futures are already at $50.85, though there is still time this week to close the gains. Let’s see what happens Friday at the close, for now here are the charts of the two stocks mentioned above, with their pullback percentages. If I am not mistaken, the SILJ etf also corrected a little over 25% before the big bounce in the last two days, so it is quite possible the worst of the decline is already behind us.

and DSVSF….

SILJ has pulled back over 25% in this correction lasting just a few weeks. While I tend to think the bulk of the downside is now behind us as far as price, given the time of year, weakening stock and crypto markets (risk assets), it won’t surprise me to see metals and miners dragged lower for awhile. While we wait for the moving averages to catch up with price, the best I can see is prices moving sideways as time passes, maybe one or two months before recharging the bull for the next big move higher. I am not selling anything into this weakness, as we already sold one-third of holdings several weeks ago. However, while my intention is to put the funds back work in miners, I have only nibbled here and there so far, in special situations where I think the recent downside has been overdone. Stocks like HOC.L, AAGFF, and ASM would qualify, even then I have only stuck my toe back in the water, and will stick with what we have until those moving averages catch up to price (the 30 WEEK MA for intermediate holding times, or the 12 MONTH MA for longer term holdings).

Meanwhile, fundamentals continue to support the bull, with all-time records for earnings and cash flow being reported now for Q3 results. It is safe to buy dips here now, as long as one doesnt go too heavy, and realizes they will likely have to wait a few months for a large, sustainable rally to take hold. This could happen as early as January, maybe sooner, so I continue to hold about 70% of our positions since its a roaring bull market, after all.

I’ve posted several charts of some of our miners, with the size of the percentage pullbacks they have experienced in just two days, coming off new highs set on Thursday. Readers know that I will not say if that was a short term top or not, only time will tell, but I like that the drops are all uniform in style and size. We also know that corrections in bull markets are sharp and scary, but usually short-lived. This tells me that IF miners can drop about 20-25% from high to low soon, I will be comfortable adding to positions in the stocks mentioned below and others, in order to put the 33% of portfolios we sold, back to work. On the other hand, if miners find a short term bottom early next week, I will sit tight with what we have and hold strong, waiting for the next substantial pullback to buy more.

SILJ reached a level that put it 87% above its 200 day MA, and while extended, this etf can trade as high as 105-120% above the MA before topping out. Still, we see the silver junior etf has pulled back over 11% from its all-time high already. I had charts for HL and CDE, both showing 13.5% declines since last Thursday but I seem to have not saved them correctly. You get the point, they are all down around the same amount since the pullback started, like AG….

I will look for lower prices to do any buying, and sit tight with the 66% of positions we still hold. What is your plan?

Silver just made its highest quarterly close in history. This implies all-time high prices on all the shorter time frames are coming, a mere formality. What this means to investors is Silver will be over $50 soon, its just a couple bucks under it now, and that the $50 zone will likely be the new support area for years to come. Regarding miners, this weekly chart of the SIL etf (larger silver miners) should play out like like silver’s chart, suggesting the all-time high up around $80 will be visited before long. At the current rate of gains, it could be next week, but it could take longer. The important takeaway is to be long and strong the metals and miners.

Another big tell that there is much further upside, is that gold started the party like usual. Not only has gold rocketed in a most impressive bull, it has barely pulled back to catch its breath along the way. Instead, it continues making records every week with no indication of a top. If history repeats, we will first have to see gold get tired and find its new trading range, and for silver to take the lead then far surpass gold’s massive percentage gains. Considering neither metal looks close to topping, with silver just inches from new all-time highs, I don’t think $50 will be the top for the white metal. Think more like $60, $70, or even $100, and that is just for this move higher, not the final bull market highs.

I have now trimmed 30% of our holdings into this straight-up runaway market. I am not sure I will be happy with this decision, but vertical markets should typically be sold into. I much prefer to see the metals and miners cool off a bit, so I do not have to sell more shares. I’m not complaining, this move up has far exceeded my wildest dreams, several positions haver netted us 600-700%, even more in the LEAP options we sold! In any case, I am done trimming for now and hoping for a pullback to put the funds back to work, where I will pick some new names while adding back to those in which I sold some.

The reason I am not happy taking these big profits early, before I get a bona-fide sell signal, is that I think the miners have much further to go, same with the metals, over the course of this bull market. For one, many stocks like PAAS have just taken out all-time highs, and others like HL are about to, however my intermediate sell-signal has come close to triggering, in fact if prices had closed where they were on the Thursday of any of the last three weeks, I would have gotten the signal. Instead, the miners rose so much on the following trading day that the signal was cancelled, I was supposed to hold everything for further gains. After this occurred several times, I realize that the signal will actually trigger, and most likely sooner rather than later. I hope you are on board with a lot of shares, it has been a win for the ages already.

No doubt the miners and metals are on fire, or that they have much higher to do. I decided to trim 15%, and might double that to 30% if my signals to sell get close again. Mind you, they are just barely trying to cross over to a sell/trim, and each time before the signal is confirmed, a huge rally appears and cancels the sell idea. In any case, after repeated flirting with and exit sign, I have decided to sell the 15% just ahead of the signal, and the other 15-18% on the other side of it, since the gains have been spectacular.

Already the HUI gold miners index is nearing 600, while GDX and GDXJ have surpassed my first big targets, and by a good amount. Don’t misunderstand me, this is not an excuse to cash out, on the contrary, no matter how large the gains are, its a sign of a truly powerful bull market. I intend to use the proceeds from sales to invest again when the froth dies down, but will also use the opportunity to re-balance and invest more in certain names and less in others, than I had for this first big push in the bull market. For example, I might go heavier into silver itself via PSLV, and into some juniors and explorers, than the mid-caps that have just done what I hoped they would do.

We are at an important point in the bull, where the temptation to sell out is great, in order to book gigantic unrealized gains. Its also where those that missed the move, now see all the money being made and are thinking they know why, likewise those with too small positions feel the greed and want to push. Both sides can’t be right, but I suspect since they are both prominent right now, corrections might be mild while they will still occur. I begun to take some off the table, feeling the fear the miners might not come back down to let me buy again! LOL, that is a sign to book some profits, because while the bull has much higher to fly, that does not mean it will go straight up from here, more likely we will see late bulls get punished for awhile until the give up, and that could require several months or more of sideways or drifting lower first, if we don’t see a short but sharp crack in the markets. October is near, after all.

Stay tuned for the anticipated sells I will make, and the subsequent buys back in, with changes in position sizes and the miners I focus on for the remainder of the bull market. As always, be careful who you listen to, and verify they make the returns they claim. An advisor should not hesitate to show you investing statements to confirm their claims, too many people claim to make money in the markets while in reality they make money off subscriptions, while losing people’s money.

The GDX chart below is a weekly chart going back twenty years, just to show how definitively the miners have taken out the all-time highs. Look to the right side of the chart to see the last seven weeks close up, its a rip-snorting bull market! I also posted a monthly chart of SILJ, also trading in all time high territory. This bull is real and has legs, that is VERY strong momentum!

While miners are clearly overbought, and a correction could occur at any time, the right move has been to stay heavily long. If we get a correction, say if GDX can pull back to its previous all time highs, it is a screaming buy opportunity. However, since momentum is so strong at the moment, we not only might not get the pullback until we see higher prices first, we also might not get a deep pullback. Our portfolios are up huge at the moment with unrealized gains, several holdings are up 400-600% already, so the temptation to ring the register is great here, but my system has told me to stay long and that has paid off nicely thus far. When I get a signal to sell, I will only trim around 33%, as new all-time highs are a sure sign the miners and metals are going much higher before the bull is over. I would also look to put those funds from any sales I might do, back into the group on the pullback if it materializes. I hope you are long and strong the miners, their time has come!