Today's Ideas:
    for morning of Tues. April 1, 2008

    IMPORTANT: Below is what we're looking at currently, but pay attention to our UPDATES on the side of each page for actual entry/exit times and prices. Refresh pages often! You will witness our winners AND losers; something that is rare in our business.    TO VERIFY ACTUAL PRICES AND TIMES, PLEASE CLICK ON  A TICKER ENTRY TO THE RIGHT.  ALL TRADES, WHEN THEY OCCURED, ARE VIEWABLE.  

    Whenever possible, we have included the ETF symbol for those who are not experienced trading futures, etc.

    Position Update: 


      The ISM index is released today at 10 am. In the past, this number has been a catalyst for entering and exiting positions. It's quite possible we get a buy signal that lasts several days, so stay focused as we're close to triggering entries. We avoided "bottom fishing" yesterday in commodities, and it looks like we'll be rewarded as commodities are lower across the board. We're very close to getting involved on the long side in Soybeans, Wheat, and Sugar. The precious metals still need to stabilize at lower prices before taking a position, in our opinion. Remember that commodity prices are affected by the $US dollar, which might be getting a respite from the recent beating it's taken. This is only part of the story, and as traders we shouldn't be swayed from our convictions. Newbies to commodities might look at the DBA or JJG etfs, as well as the individual commodity "etc's" on the London Stock Exchange.

    Regarding stocks, our feeling is that we might start to see more strength in the coming weeks. It's just a hunch, and still too early to tell, but we will consider trading some individual names from the long side. At the current time, however, we're prepared to trade either side through the SRS or SKF etfs (long the inverse etfs) or long stocks such as AAPL and RIMM. We also have a few smaller names on our screen such as ALVR and CRESY (for long side only). Our slightly bullish outlook on stocks over the next few weeks goes counter to our opinion of current affairs, but a trader must be flexible. Importantly, under no circumstances are we trading financial stocks from the long side. The bear trend in this area is just too strong, and bombs are dropped just about every day. Today it appears the markets are ignoring news out of Deutsche Bank that says "conditions worsened". This might be the "tell" that stocks want to work higher near term. There should be some excellent trading out there in the next few months, and we don't expect stocks to run away in either direction, but rather trade in a wide range. Let's take advantage, and remember to be patient until after 10 am at the earliest.

    Position update as of 8:07 am:

    Long 1.25 units Coffee etf on the LSE ($3.26)

    Long 1/2 unit Cotton etf on the LSE ($2.64)

    Trading Accounts equity < 5.2% from all time highs


    For previous posts visit the archives.



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