Today's Ideas:
    for morning of Tues. Jan. 15, 2008

    IMPORTANT: Below is what we're looking at currently, but pay attention to our UPDATES on the side of each page for actual entry/exit times and prices. Refresh pages often! You will witness our winners AND losers; something that is rare in our business.    TO VERIFY ACTUAL PRICES AND TIMES, PLEASE CLICK ON  A TICKER ENTRY TO THE RIGHT.  ALL TRADES, WHEN THEY OCCURED, ARE VIEWABLE.  

    Whenever possible, we have included the ETF symbol for those who are not experienced trading futures, etc.

    Position update as of 11:32 am:

    Short 1 unit ZB (Bonds avg. price 118 18/32)

    Long 2 units QLD (avg. price $83.025)

    Long 4 units SB (Sugar avg. price .10701)


       Back in the saddle after lots of travel. Although we move around, we still take trades as they signal. Happily, we haven't had many signals lately, and we avoided the nasty losses others have been experiencing. Patience has proved invaluable the last few weeks. It's important to recognize the mood has changed (and many moving averages have rolled over into downtrends), and thus any long stock signals will be shorter term trades. We have added a short ZB (bonds) position to our portfolio yesterday. This is also a shorter term trade, and we came close to an exit signal yesterday morning (would've been an acceptable profit), but it didn't confirm so we're still short 1 unit ZB. This morning we had 2 buy signals in the QLD etf, and both were taken giving us a total of 2 units QLD long at average price of $83.025 including commissions. We'll look to get a sell signal within the next couple hours, and do not expect to add more to this position. Our long Sugar position is still at 4 units, and we'd love to get a signal to add, but so far we'll just stay with what we have.

    Citigroup has set the tone for today's markets. The company reported terrible news all the way around. Beware of cheerleaders on TV that might convince people that somehow there is a positive development in C, or the financials in general. There is NOTHING good about the situation at Citi, and we are not buying any financials. When we look at the charts, they are some of the most tempting to pick a bottom.

    Keep in mind that when a chart goes straight down, there is bad news that has yet to surface. Surprises will tend to be on the same side as the trend. That is, ugly charts will have negative surprises in the news. We cannot hold such positions overnight with any conviction, so the trades cannot be taken.

    We are tempted as much as the next trader, but so far this approach has saved us lots of capital over the years. Let 'surprises' be your friend by staying in the same direction as the longer term (200) moving averages!

    There are many interesting write ups today, so we'll just point you directly to the front page of Bloomberg...

    We encourage any questions and comments on how to improve our site, and hope you find it useful.  This is a great business, but the learning curve can really take awhile as most successful traders don't have any reason to share ideas.  This site is our way of giving back to the trading arenas, in the name of the few mentors we found that helped us along the way.  Good luck.

    We don't always have the time to explain the reasoning for trades, but they are often a combination of technical, fundamental, and "gut feel".  Pay attention, have fun, and make money!

    For previous posts visit the archives.



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