Today's Ideas:
    for afternoon of Wed. April 9, 2008

    IMPORTANT: Below is what we're looking at currently, but pay attention to our UPDATES on the side of each page for actual entry/exit times and prices. Refresh pages often! You will witness our winners AND losers; something that is rare in our business.    TO VERIFY ACTUAL PRICES AND TIMES, PLEASE CLICK ON  A TICKER ENTRY TO THE RIGHT.  ALL TRADES, WHEN THEY OCCURED, ARE VIEWABLE.  

    Whenever possible, we have included the ETF symbol for those who are not experienced trading futures, etc.

    Position Update: 


      There hasn't been much happening in the markets until today. Regarding stocks, we've been involved in the inverse etfs (SRS, and EEV also in personal accounts). The last few days have been very quiet with regards to volatility, but this might be changing today. It's important not to force a trade before it signals. Boredom is the enemy of the trader, and can be quite costly. When we're patiently waiting a signal and it arrives, we are able to capitalize as we are trading from a position of strength. This will then allow a trader to add to a winning situation easier, as we don't have to contend with a negative "mark". Regarding our "short stock" setups, we'll continue to look to initiate/add on the same side until further notice. SRS, SKF, and EEV will be treated as long only candidates in our opinion. We like to make sure that any surprise headlines support our positions by trading with the trend of the last several months. A simple way to evaluate the trend is to look at the slope and direction of the 200 day moving average.

    Just a brief note regarding the recent market action before we get into specifics. Although the trend is down (moving averages), we've noticed the "old leaders" like AAPL, RIMM, and the solar stocks really get strong. This tells us that the mood has changed, even if only temporarily. We DO NOT, however, start to bottom fish the financial stocks or other fundamentally weak sectors like XHB (home building). We use the information to adjust our "short side" strategy, but the game is the same. Also, the reduced volatility has allowed us to readjust our position sizes slightly larger again. We can't always expect the fireworks and easy money of the last few months. A more typical environment will have tempered moves in a slight trend. Over the next few weeks we'll use this observation to adjust accordingly.

    Yesterday we were able to step into some July Wheat futures on a buy signal, and we like this trade longer term. We will keep stops, but if the position gets some traction, we'll be ready to add aggressively. Today we got a sell signal in our COFF etf (Coffee on LSE), and had to exit at a tiny gain. Had we been more fortunate in timing our purchase, we'd have had substantial gains. This is an example of doing the right thing, and not really getting paid. When we evaluate our performance, we feel we did the right thing, regardless of the outcome. A trader must judge his performance by how he acted and why, the profits are secondary. COFF was a good trade, and will make money a high percentage of the time, so we are fine if we only made a bit.

    Position update as of 12:15 pm:

    Long 1 unit July Wheat at 942

    Bought 1 unit SRS at $87.26

    Long 1 unit WEAT etf on the LSE ($4.8450)

    Long 1.25 units Coffee etf on the LSE ($3.26) Sold at 3.27

    Long 1/2 unit Cotton etf on the LSE ($2.64)

    Trading Accounts equity < 2.4% from all time highs


    For previous posts visit the archives.



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