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    Today's Ideas:
    for afternoon of Thurs. Mar. 20, 2008

    IMPORTANT: Below is what we're looking at currently, but pay attention to our UPDATES on the side of each page for actual entry/exit times and prices. Refresh pages often! You will witness our winners AND losers; something that is rare in our business.    TO VERIFY ACTUAL PRICES AND TIMES, PLEASE CLICK ON  A TICKER ENTRY TO THE RIGHT.  ALL TRADES, WHEN THEY OCCURED, ARE VIEWABLE.  

    Whenever possible, we have included the ETF symbol for those who are not experienced trading futures, etc.

    Position Update: 

    Chart

      What can we say about the action lately? It seems stocks have an excuse to rally in the short term, and commodities should decline with the rally in the US dollar. Our currency has been the overriding factor is asset prices and the mood seems to have changed in that area. We're not sure how much further commodities could drop, as many have wiped out much of the recent moves. The "hard assets" are at prices we really like, but we need some sideways gyrations before we can get heavily long. Do not count commodities out, or in a bear market, as they have serious fundamental reasons for their multi year run up. We continue to only consider the long side in commodities, and the question is when and how much?

    Readers had an opportunity to see just how damaging it is to break a rule. We have absolutely no remorse for any of the trades we took, and lost on, when stopped out. The specific trade that hurts is the Sugar position. We did not stop out, and it is a trade we'll remember. Losing money doesn't bug us, but breaking rules is unacceptable for any reason. The best way to remind ourselves to refocus is to lose money. Another rule we have not needed to invoke for some time, is that of our draw down of 10%. Whenever we skid past stops to a 10% loss from the highs, or any one month, we shut down for a week+. This is simply stabilize before we get active again. Since we strive to trade from a position of strength, it's imperative we take the "time out". We're hoping readers can learn from our mistake, and the lesson is "Honor your predetermined stops".

    Let's see what the markets have in store over the next few weeks. It's always true, but now more than ever, "anything can happen." Keep position sizes smaller for the increased volatility.

    Position update as of 2:18 pm:

    Long 1.25 units Coffee etf on the LSE ($3.26)

    Long 1/2 unit Cotton etf on the LSE ($2.64)

    Long 2 units Sugar (May contract avg. price .13065)

    Trading Accounts equity < 9.2% from all time highs.

     

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