Today's Ideas:
    for afternoon of Tues. Mar. 18, 2008

    IMPORTANT: Below is what we're looking at currently, but pay attention to our UPDATES on the side of each page for actual entry/exit times and prices. Refresh pages often! You will witness our winners AND losers; something that is rare in our business.    TO VERIFY ACTUAL PRICES AND TIMES, PLEASE CLICK ON  A TICKER ENTRY TO THE RIGHT.  ALL TRADES, WHEN THEY OCCURED, ARE VIEWABLE.  

    Whenever possible, we have included the ETF symbol for those who are not experienced trading futures, etc.

    Position Update: 


       We had a tough day yesterday, with commodities getting hit hard. We're close to getting entry/add signals, and were able to scoop up some more Cotton yesterday and Coffee today. Let's continue to monitor all the names we've mentioned recently for opportunities to buy more "hard assets". Although we're seeing a big stock rally before the Fed's decision at 2:15pm, we have not gotten a "buy" signal in stocks. SRS and SKF are pulling back hard today, but our indicators suggest it might be too soon to make a play there. For now, we'll look to add commodities long as they are in a strong trend up, while looking to short "paper", which is also in a strong trend (lower). Mind your stops and position sizes, as the volatility has been fierce.

    We hopped on a buy signal in Coffee today, and were filled on 1/2 unit of Cotton yesterday. We might be too early in this pullback, but a signal is a signal. Due to a system malfunction, we were unable to stop out of our Sugar position yesterday. When this occurs, the only thing that can be done is to trade patiently with an eye on the next "window". The losses are digestible, however, and we view pullbacks in commodities as buying opportunities. We still do not recommend shorting in this area, as the trends are clearly higher. There will be big pullbacks on occasion. These are not comfortable, but it's how markets work. We see lots of newsletters and blogs that were bullish on commodities, turn to short term bearish, and thus cashed out. In a trend like we're witnessing, it's important to remind ourselves that great buying opportunities don't occur frequently. Let things stabilize, and then get back on the horse.

    While we admit to having a hard day or two, one strategy we've employed has been very rewarding. We have stated several times that we would NOT touch the financial stocks from the long side. The "surprises" are to the downside, and Bear Stearns illustrated this perfectly. All those who thought it was a bargain at some level are now wiped out of the game. There is no recovering from a mistake like that, and we won't take that trade. The financials are up huge today (although not as high as last week), but all those holding this group right now must be very tense. This creates a lack of conviction, and thus it's difficult to "trade out" of the position well. In short, it's hard to hold a winner when you just saw BSC blow up overnight. BSC is not the last, either, and there are simply better trades out there. We're trying to swim with the current!

    Position update as of 1:37 pm:

    Long 1 unit Coffee etf on the LSE ($3.26)

    Long 1/2 unit Cotton etf on the LSE ($2.64)

    Long 1 unit Cotton futures (May contract avg. price .7684)

    Long 4 units Sugar (May contract avg. price .13065)

    Trading Accounts equity < 5.3% from all time highs.


    For previous posts visit the archives.



    This site is for instructional purposes only, and is not to be construed as investment advice. | Disclaimer | Contact Us | ©2007-2008 All rights reserved.