tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-53388227100674418602008-08-28T16:29:34.290-04:00itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comBlogger73125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-83185288504524558982008-08-28T08:13:00.005-04:002008-08-28T16:29:34.301-04:00

Trading is a game of acting correctly as second nature. As such, it helps to break things down so that you can remind yourself where your focus should be to "keep it simple". This is a theme I continually mention, as it's contributed more to my success than any other factor. Perhaps it's just how I'm wired. One note of caution regarding your analysis and indicators. Be absolutely sure that your

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-502830747361006322008-08-27T07:49:00.006-04:002008-08-27T08:05:08.469-04:00

In my ongoing effort to demystify successful trading, I thought I'd share how I know to exit a trade, whether it's a winner or loser. As always, I'll keep it plain and simple: 1) The instrument gets to your defined profit level, if you have a specific target. If no specific level, then exit when your studies (ie. MACD crossover, Fibonnaci, etc.) complete their signal. 2) The instrument hits

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-37723770166114240872008-08-26T10:13:00.004-04:002008-08-26T10:47:53.071-04:00

I just covered my short bond position at a loss. The light volume of late summer has caused many conflicting signals and crosscurrents. I will look to re-enter on a new signal, possibly as soon as this week. The data reported this morning would typically cause stocks to stay weak, and bonds to get stronger, so I'm best served by limiting my losses on this trade. Risk adjusted returns are

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-26342425355095480412008-08-22T08:42:00.004-04:002008-08-22T09:06:22.912-04:00

So far, I'm content with what's on my plate. I booked profits on Corn futures yesterday, and initiated a short position in Treasury bonds, while "managing" my long gold trade. I don't expect the bonds to pay off immediately, and plan to take advantage of signals to add. Gold and other commodities could easily pull back for a few days, and that might provide a window to re-enter. In any

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-90191601067587527952008-08-21T10:45:00.006-04:002008-08-21T11:24:21.828-04:00

It feels like forever since I really got a hold on a great trade, but today I'm hitting all time highs in equity again. Being the end of August, I don't expect strong follow through in any asset class. Recall that I will continue to try the long side on commodities because the long term trend is up, but that recent damage in the $CRB index has dampened my upside expectations. Still, commodities

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-72358953691318908262008-08-14T14:04:00.006-04:002008-08-14T14:26:54.900-04:00

Some readers are confused by my recent comments when compared with my actions, so I'll explain. To make and keep gains taken from the markets, one must be flexible. I frequently make the distinction between analysts and traders. An analyst is concerned with being correct, while I'm concerned about making money. My recent "adjustment" in my outlook for the $USD is a function of the breakout on

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-77588544961126632882008-08-12T08:26:00.003-04:002008-08-12T08:47:39.339-04:00

Typically there is an inverse relationship between stocks and bonds, as a result of being competing asset classes. When they trade in then same direction, it's a cue that something larger is occurring under the surface. The good news is that things usually return to "normal" before too long. Until this relationship is turned right side up, I'll continue to look for one or the other to

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-88379608052057566712008-08-11T09:01:00.003-04:002008-08-11T16:10:46.021-04:00

Account equity has been bouncing around, from a new high on Thursday, to a decent size pullback on Friday. The give and take in my trading continues, but I've managed some gains through proper position sizing and relative weakness plays (financial stocks). All in all, I've executed my plan well, except for exiting the IYF etf on Friday at a small profit. I still hold SKF, but in review of

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-83035864039640226512008-08-08T09:10:00.002-04:002008-08-08T09:14:25.672-04:00

It's Friday, and things are pretty well set for me. The only "issue" is the $USD screaming higher, right through well established resistance levels. I took my shot going long DGP (Gold) and I might get stopped out today. It's much easier to digest when trading accounts hit all time highs in equity yesterday, due to a very nice bet in the SKF long, and the IYF short. To sum up, the tug of war

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-506002142854682222008-08-07T08:14:00.002-04:002008-08-07T08:44:01.781-04:00

I prefer to have confirmation in various groups, indexes, and world markets before initiating new positions, but that's not always possible. I'm currently adding to my equities (short financials and looking to add real estate), as well as accumulating gold and other commodities long. It's the same plan as the last several days, and I'll attempt to use adverse price moves (intraday) to

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-16369959353887507082008-08-06T12:36:00.004-04:002008-08-06T13:08:09.225-04:00

Of course I cannot know for sure if this is the bottom in commodities, and or the top in stocks, but I'm comfortable taking a stand here. As I often discuss, almost all asset classes are linked. For the past couple years, the JPY (yen) and the $CRB have been reliable indicators. On top of that, we have everybody, even commodity bulls, trumpeting the "crash" in hard assets. I can't recall in

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-7759655647279787012008-08-05T08:52:00.004-04:002008-08-05T09:23:49.955-04:00

Let's get the FOMC decision behind us, so we can get back to "normal". The event has little significance this time, other than keeping most participants on the sidelines. I've reviewed certain major themes that have been getting tested lately (ie. the commodity bull), and they are basically intact. Even if commodities are "finished", it does not mean stocks necessarily go up, so the equity bear

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-52937010942441834352008-07-31T08:51:00.003-04:002008-07-31T13:52:44.254-04:00

I received an e-mail yesterday inquiring "where I thought stocks were headed?" Such a general question could be answered that stocks will go up and down, for tradable moves on the short and long side. On the surface, this answer seems evasive, so I'll clarify. There is a big difference between trading and economic analysis. My thoughts on the economy, the $USD, the national debt, and the credit

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-40338004265422951472008-07-30T08:05:00.003-04:002008-07-30T08:36:09.697-04:00

I'll make this a quick update, as not much has changed since yesterday. I did start to buy into the SLV and DGP etfs (Silver and Gold), but with very small size. I acted as a result of relative strength in commodities, even though the $USD was up sharply. For example, the DBA etf (agriculture)closed up on the day and near the highs, after opening a percent or two lower. I'll continue to "leg

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-57866495659899645112008-07-29T08:35:00.013-04:002008-07-30T08:10:27.191-04:00

It's premature to start buying stocks for a bounce, in my opinion. It appears I also covered my shorts too soon, although I've had a decent run lately. The "press" keeps reminding us that the $USD is oversold and about to strengthen, but sentiment cannot be quantified usefully, so I choose to ignore it. As traders, it's always best to bet with the current trend. Investors might be more inclined

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-43885802056959039352008-07-24T08:24:00.005-04:002008-07-24T13:40:22.180-04:00

My focus lately has been shorter term. This is due to the volatility and the "counter trend" opportunities. I've discussed many times how I prefer to be short "paper" and long hard assets in this environment. However, I also take signals as they present, and that called for getting long stocks the last couple weeks. It was uncomfortable but necessary. I'm pleased to say that the tide is turning

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-43122211873564552402008-07-23T08:57:00.006-04:002008-07-23T09:26:37.420-04:00

It feels like my last 40 trades have been losers. Of course I'm kidding, but sequences like this will definitely test your mettle. The thing that's kept me level headed, and my focus in the game, is simply position sizing. Rather than being ready to "pack it up", I'm eager to get a hold on the next opportunity. Keep in mind that sharp moves will take time to settle, and more time to turn back in

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-42534354224408402532008-07-22T09:05:00.006-04:002008-07-22T09:57:10.232-04:00

Since my positions have not followed through to large gains lately, I've been keeping the sizes small. Regardless of the size, however, I still use the same stop price I would if I had more substantial positions. The swings in P+L should remain subdued even though the markets are twisting and bending. Volatility has crept back into most asset classes, and traders need to address this fact in

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-76572441247118480352008-07-18T07:46:00.005-04:002008-07-18T08:24:44.412-04:00

Almost everybody expected a rally after the beating stocks have taken for the last 6 weeks or so, and it's finally materialized. The question is, "where do we go from here?" It has been my experience that the stronger the move (in this case lower), the more likely it is to continue in the same direction, or at least damper the reactive bounce. So far this theory seems to be holding, as stocks

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-21787161431635668712008-07-10T08:22:00.004-04:002008-07-10T08:56:44.832-04:00

The last couple months have been frustrating. It's not that I've lost much money (in fact I'm about exactly where I was), but I was unable to capitalize on a very accurate 6-10 week short side trade in stocks. Take a look at the attached chart exactly when the index touched the 200 day MA. When the positions failed to get much traction, my system called for going the other way (long). Here we

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-60310150861349111682008-07-01T07:50:00.006-04:002008-07-01T09:27:19.094-04:00

Today's ISM # at 10 am might provide an opportunity. Should I get a signal, I'm prepared to add to my small position (MTU long), as well as enter ZB futures short (bonds) at some point today. The worst case scenario is that the ISM trips me up by not allowing any signals to trigger for the remainder of the week. Regular readers know I am not fond of vacation shortened weeks as the action gets

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-2120960109361489452008-06-27T08:56:00.004-04:002008-06-27T09:31:37.418-04:00

Although I take time off from the markets, I always keep an eye out for setups. If there isn't a new post for a day or two, please keep an eye on the ticker where I report my trades. I'll always make comments on what I do, even if I don't write a post explaining why. Sometimes there just isn't that much to share! One great thing about this business is that it allows for spontaneity. You can

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-63674075786032152352008-06-13T11:18:00.005-04:002008-06-20T10:20:53.377-04:00

I might get stopped out of the $CAD trade, but other than that, there's not anything new to share in my trading. I don't anticipate doing much today, as I'm close to some entry signals but prefer to wait until they trigger. I found a few interesting articles, so I decided to make a short post with the links. There's Brett Steenbarger on the changing intermarket themes. Pay special attention to

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-14733255392752685382008-06-12T08:57:00.004-04:002008-06-12T09:38:21.983-04:00

The strength of the $USD has returned, causing my $CAD trade to go against me. I'll simply keep my stops at a level where I have a total risk on the portfolio of 1%. One difficult aspect of trading is once the trader has larger position sizes (from adding units), he loses capital much quicker during adverse price moves. This causes me to get to my stop levels quicker. I honestly do not care if

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5338822710067441860.post-74707336024082571552008-06-11T08:19:00.005-04:002008-06-11T09:09:25.734-04:00

Regardless of the instruments I trade, readers can benefit from watching how I add to a winners, or cut losers. You don't have to know anything about the Canadian dollar to learn effective trading decisions. My most recent trade (long $CAD futures) is getting some traction, and I'm now looking to step up the size. I don't add just because I'm

itrade4realhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12084989194456533736noreply@blogger.com