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    Wednesday, November 5, 2008

    Now what?

    The answer is nothing, in the short term anyway. Longer term, readers will see me hammer home a few ideas over and over, such as shorting bonds, and getting long commodities. Still, it's too early to "lay out" the bonds, as the rip snortin' bull move they've had will take some time to soften up. The good news is that we've already begun the process of sapping bond strength, but the "easy" money is not yet close at hand. My long commodity thesis, likewise, will take a bit of time (3-4 months?) to strengthen before I go "all in".

    We should still have excellent opportunities for shorter time frames, however, so be sure to keep your head screwed on straight. Avoid getting married to an idea at all costs, as I don't see moves following through just yet (no obvious trend). I remain flexible to trade either side of stocks, will buy dips in commodities, and short spikes in bonds, until further notice. I continue to trade more size (20% larger positions) than I did in October, as a function of reduced volatility.

    Good luck, and keep it simple.

    Links I like:

    Here's how the air gets let out of bonds, eventually.

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