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    Friday, October 3, 2008

    The more things change...

    ...the more they stay the same. Gyrations in all asset classes have necessitated adjustments in holding times and sizing, but certain rules never change. Predefined risk and proper sizing are constant, although the inputs vary from day to day. Another rule that works for me is that I try to never chase a move. The last month has put many undisciplined traders to sleep, and we'll get the headlines over the next few weeks. It's important to remind ourselves to focus on execution, and not results. If your account is having 5%+/- moves day after day, I can promise that you are trading too "big".

    We're at a crossroads in the near term. Stocks are giving short term (day trade) buy signals, but nothing with an overnight signal, except fertilizer stocks. I'll look to enter these, but only on a sharp pullbacks. The yen trade (long side) is tired for now, so leave that on the back burner. Bonds are a definite short side trade, but have yet to signal an entry (I did miss an oppty this morning by just a couple ticks). For today, my focus is on getting long ferts or the ES futures. Pay attention at the close today, as I would most likely exit ahead of the weekend. I'm aware I might miss big gains, but that is not what should concern us, but rather the potential downside. The indexes are clearly in bearish downtrends, so holding stocks long over a weekend is poor risk/reward, even if it works, IMO.

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