Today's Ideas:

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    Tuesday, September 2, 2008

    How to trade this September

    By now, readers should know the way to trade September is the same way as any other month. This morning will knock commodities and bonds lower, while equities jump higher. The position I have in Gold will be fine, due to proper position sizing, but accounts will start the month slightly negative. The short position in bonds should contain the losses overall, and that is where my focus will be today. Look for me to step into larger size shorting the 30 yr T-bond futures. Traders can also get long the TBT etf, as it's 2x the inverse move in bonds.

    I'll continue to play commodities from the long side, and anticipate an entry soon in either Sugar, Corn, or Wheat futures. In fact, even with today's "drubbing" of Gold, I am still profitable in that trade too, so that is a candidate to add. After holidays, it's best to let the pent up action exhaust itself before taking big stakes. Along these idea, I am reasonably sure I'll only manage, or add, to current winners, rather than initiate new positions today. By mid-week, I suspect I'll get some very attractive entries, especially in the grains.

    Stocks want to go higher, but I continue to prepare for a short side play in financials and real estate (IYF and IYR). Readers have seen firsthand how good these signals have been to me over the last year. Again, I don't anticipate initiating new positons today, as I have manageable risk coming into the month, and will keep it that way. I'm prepared to get heavy once any position gets traction.


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