How to trade around the payroll data
Payroll figures will be released at 8:30 am. Although I don't trade on analysis of the data, I often find market moving numbers to provide a catalyst for entry. One must think of where the opportunity to surprise lies, and position accordingly. For example, if we get a further push down in stocks, I will start to acquire some or all of the fertilizer, materials, and energy names. We have several instruments that will tip the hand of the next move, including treasury bonds and the Japanese yen, with the yen just now breaking out of the downtrend established in March. I don't feel compelled to "load up" on a Friday, yet we are very, very close to an inflection point.
Specifically look for me to add to the Sugar futures position, and possibly Gold, and DBA in the commodities arena.
With regard to equities, I could get many day trade setups, and I will take all signals. Look for me to trade any or all of the following: IYM (long), OIH (long), IYR (short), IYF (short), IAT (short), and IYE (long). Traders can use these ideas for their own specific companies if they wish. As I trade OIH long, for example, traders could get long their favorite driller. I prefer the etfs most of the time, as they can handle the size and volume, with less slippage.
Please note that I don't "average down" just because the price is lower, but rather my adding is a function of direction. Direction is much more important than price levels.
Great traders make mistakes all the time, but the difference between them and average traders is they realize the mistake and correct it on their own terms, before the market does it for them.
Links I like:
Is Bill Gross getting a margin call?
"Is Bill Gross getting a margin call?"
LMAO. That is so witty I can't stand it...or maybe I'm the only one who thinks it's funny? Lots of other good nuggets, too.
Interesting that you believe we are near an inflection point. I'm looking forward to reading more.
Pimco just got what they wanted, now let's see if I get what I wanted.