Today's Ideas:

    IMPORTANT : Below is what we're looking at currently, but pay attention to our UPDATES on the side of each page for actual entry/exit times and prices. Refresh pages often! You will witness our winners AND losers; something that is rare in our business.    TO VERIFY ACTUAL PRICES AND TIMES, PLEASE CLICK ON  A TICKER ENTRY TO THE RIGHT.  ALL TRADES, WHEN THEY OCCURED, ARE VIEWABLE.  Whenever possible, we have included the ETF symbol for those who are not experienced trading futures, etc.

    Wednesday, September 17, 2008

    3 trades to watch today

    Too often traders not only have an opinion, but become inflexible. Direction is never a definite, but rather a probability. It's easy after a good day to convince yourself you "know something". Don't get off track, and instead remind yourself that all you know is you'll act according to your system, no matter what comes next.

    The current positions are intact, but I'm happy I booked some of my winners yesterday. With today's lower open, I might have a signal to reload, or hop on another vehicle. We've discussed many times that follow through has been hard to come by lately, and as such, most equity positions will be day trades only (or 2 days most). This will change at some point, and I'll adjust to longer hold times once the risk/reward supports the change.

    Keep in mind that the following are ideas that are worth watching, but that I'll need a signal before taking a shot. Lets take a look at the yen, as it's been the "tell" lately. I'm not sure I'll get an entry yet, but it's broken it's downtrend, and I want in. Don't chase, but have your levels ready. I use the JPY futures to participate, but FXY could be used also.

    Second, we have several attractive long-side stock ideas for intraday moves, like we did yesterday. Same idea, different day. I'll look to trade NQ futures (QLD etf) and IYM for long setups. Energy names might provide relative strength, such as ACI and MEE, but I will most likely add to PGH with the yield.

    Thirdly, bonds have been on a monster run higher. If stocks can turn higher and hold, the short side of ZB futures (or TBT etf) will become viable. For now, it's a toss up as to where equities go next, so I also have some short ideas. Should capital run back into bonds (safety), surely IYR and IYF will offer profits on the short side (also can go long SRS and SKF).

    The main idea to take away is that hold times have been reduced, as well as position sizes. There's still money to be made, but don't get caught with your hand in the cookie jar. Even the bigwigs are getting spanked. Ask Dick Fuld, or Hank Greenberg how wealthy they feel today. Your financial security is up to you (mostly), so do everything you can to manage risk. It's all you've got.

    Links I like:

    -I thought this sums up the world's opinion of the US, from Bloomberg:

    ``The tables have turned, and U.S. banks have to realize that,'' said Lee Chol Hwi, chief executive officer of state-run Korea Asset Management Corp., known as Kamco, who was trying to buy $200 million of nonperforming loans from Merrill. ``It's practically a buyer's market there.''

    -Also, this attitude should not go unnoticed, and could drive down the $USD


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