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    Thursday, August 21, 2008

    In the driver's seat

    It feels like forever since I really got a hold on a great trade, but today I'm hitting all time highs in equity again. Being the end of August, I don't expect strong follow through in any asset class. Recall that I will continue to try the long side on commodities because the long term trend is up, but that recent damage in the $CRB index has dampened my upside expectations. Still, commodities are not a good short side bet, even if you happen to make money, IMO. The way to incorporate the "breakdown" in commodities the last few weeks, is to just realize that bull moves higher might not be as strong as they once were.
    Capitalize on them anyway, as we are not in a bear market for this asset class, even with the damage being done. Forget the label, just be confident in the long term direction. I'm pushing the Gold trade for what it's worth, but don't expect to get much better than $860/ounce on this move.

    I anticipate September being a great month to trade. Until then, I'll look to short Treasury bonds (maybe today), and might even get long some stocks (Taiwan or Japan?). I can't stress enough that the wide trading ranges we've witnessed the last few months will most likely continue for several more weeks, so I'm keeping reasonable profit objectives. These are not buy and hold markets, and I'll book the profits accordingly. The JPY (yen futures) trade has already take off without me, but I could be a buyer in the 109.36 level (or .009144 in the futures). As always, I'll inform readers of every trade, as they occur.
    Timely discussion on the recent lack of follow through.

    2 Comments:

    Blogger Johnabi said...

    Thanks for the work you do and the fact that you are willing to share your thoughts. Your site is one of my "must reads" everyday. :)

    August 21, 2008 2:43 PM  
    Blogger itrade4real said...

    You're very welcome, and thanks for stopping by.

    August 21, 2008 4:00 PM  

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