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    Tuesday, August 26, 2008

    Consumer Confidence catalyst

    I just covered my short bond position at a loss. The light volume of late summer has caused many conflicting signals and crosscurrents. I will look to re-enter on a new signal, possibly as soon as this week. The data reported this morning would typically cause stocks to stay weak, and bonds to get stronger, so I'm best served by limiting my losses on this trade. Risk adjusted returns are all that matters in this business. I do see some potentially significant signals close at hand, but will try to hold off until most of the players return. These late summer days seem to lack follow through, even when I timed in correctly. On to the next opportunity!

    With regard to my Gold long, I will stay with it until I get a sell signal. I suspect we'll see $860/ounce before I see the exit, which is a satisfactory trade. Keep in mind that this is not a long term bullish opinion, but rather just a simple trade. Trades like this make it worthwhile to stay in the office at this time of year, and I'd like to get a signal to add Corn and Wheat futures in the next few days, but I'm not holding my breath.

    I read a lot of what "Wall Streeters" have to say. it amazes me how many opinions are spouted without even having a specific timeframe. I can assure readers that the only things that matter will be the size of your position, and exactly where you entered and exited. Everything else is just a distraction to avoid answering the specifics. If a trader can't share/acknowledge his losses, how can we know if he's worth listening to?

    A few resources I use are Rob Hanna's Quantifiable Edges, specifically note his post on trading recent choppy markets, and the Newsflashr news and blog aggregator. It's a great overall stop each morning, with load of pertinent material. Be sure to let the owners/operators know which sites you find useful, so that the community can grow with the best content available. I've added a button on the front page to link easily to Newsflashr business. Takre care, and keep your powder dry for what promises to be an eventful September!

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