Today's Ideas:

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    Thursday, August 7, 2008

    Buckle up!

    I prefer to have confirmation in various groups, indexes, and world markets before initiating new positions, but that's not always possible. I'm currently adding to my equities (short financials and looking to add real estate), as well as accumulating gold and other commodities long. It's the same plan as the last several days, and I'll attempt to use adverse price moves (intraday) to consistently increase size.

    Yesterday I discussed what I consider to be important levels in various asset classes. Either the major trends in place will re-exert themselves, or we are early in our "new trends". In my experience, it does not pay to be on the latter, as we can only be sure things have changed permanently as some point far in the future. The only bet that should work here, is to get back on the side of the established moods. See yesterday's post, but the $USD index, $CRB, and the JPY (yen) are offering good risk/reward entries. Naturally, I'd like stock indexes to be trading in unison, but the above is enough to enter, when combines with a signal. Remind yourself that it's not the label of "bull" or "bear" that has significance, but only if you are correct about direction for your specific time frame. The world is full of analysts that cannot trade. Another example is the issue of whether the US is in recession, or just narrowly averting one. Who knows? Where we can all agree is the fact the US has experienced a tremendous slowdown. This is useful, but the label is not.

    Buckle up, as we're at an inflection point. It might not resolve immediately, but I'll keep positioning for the bet I think has the highest probability of working.

    To read:

    -No more ATM

    -TraderMike's take on recent strength (Aug. 5th post)


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