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    IMPORTANT : Below is what we're looking at currently, but pay attention to our UPDATES on the side of each page for actual entry/exit times and prices. Refresh pages often! You will witness our winners AND losers; something that is rare in our business.    TO VERIFY ACTUAL PRICES AND TIMES, PLEASE CLICK ON  A TICKER ENTRY TO THE RIGHT.  ALL TRADES, WHEN THEY OCCURED, ARE VIEWABLE.  Whenever possible, we have included the ETF symbol for those who are not experienced trading futures, etc.

    Wednesday, July 30, 2008

    Quick post


    I'll make this a quick update, as not much has changed since yesterday. I did start to buy into the SLV and DGP etfs (Silver and Gold), but with very small size. I acted as a result of relative strength in commodities, even though the $USD was up sharply. For example, the DBA etf (agriculture)closed up on the day and near the highs, after opening a percent or two lower. I'll continue to "leg into" these over the next several days, if they start to get traction. It's important to note that the current position sizes are small compared with a "full" position. As always, trading accounts are operating with a 1% total portfolio risk. I expect strength to resume in commodities at some point, but will only risk the 1% per trade. Some traders and friends suggest I increase the risk to 2 or even 5%, but I am relatively risk averse.

    With regard to stocks, my focus will be on getting short at some time over the next week or two, but only once I get a signal. I'm currently flat, and my preferred vehicles for shorting will be the real estate and financial sectors (SRS and SKF long), as well as an index like the Russell 2000 (IWM etf). Just a brief comment on the Olympics in China. Forget the "impact" on financial markets, and enjoy the games. Too much debate and opinion has been spent on this topic; it's a non event. If stocks move straight lower from here (unlikely). Remember that I am not married to positions. Just beacuase I short stocks frequently, does not imply I don't go long, too. It depends on the signal, and the trades are constantly evolving. My trade ideas are not always deep felt market opinions, but rather thoughts about what will happen in a specific time frame. If I prefer the short side, but a reader sees I'm long a stock in two days, I guarantee I have a reason, and it's not a "flip flop". One thing readers will never see here, is my looking to short a particular stock, but instead I'm long that same stock. Please read carefully if you choose to read at all. If you check the details, you'll find the same themes being played over and over, but at different junctures. I have been trading the long side of commodities for years, but that doesn't mean I always have a position. Same with financial or real estate stocks. I've been short or flat for the last couple years, but not long these groups.

    Lastly, there is a difference between what I am scoping, and what I actually enter. Many of my ideas never trigger an entry signal, so no position is taken. All actual positions (not ideas on the "to do" list) are listed on the current positions tab.

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