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    Thursday, July 24, 2008

    The plan


    My focus lately has been shorter term. This is due to the volatility and the "counter trend" opportunities. I've discussed many times how I prefer to be short "paper" and long hard assets in this environment. However, I also take signals as they present, and that called for getting long stocks the last couple weeks. It was uncomfortable but necessary. I'm pleased to say that the tide is turning back to where I'm looking to get on the same side as the longer term themes. It's been a sharp run up in stocks, so I don't expect to get paid right away on the short side. More likely, it could take weeks, so I'm eager to lengthen hold times while staying on the side of the long term pull. It's going to take several days or even a week+ to get to full size positions, as I only have samples currently. In addition, I'll still make occasional day trades, but the focus is on the more significant, long term (6-10 weeks+) setups in the same direction as the general trends. I've recalculated my desired position sizes, and I recommend readers do so as well, to compensate for the sharp moves. It doesn't do us any good to be correct on the move, but have been stopped out prior to getting paid!

    My primary targets are subject to change, but will be SRS and TWM, or the futures on the Russell 2000 (symbol ER2). There are many decent candidates, so try not to get hung up with information overload. As long as I short stocks with a plan, that is what's important, more so than the specific fine-tuned idea. Secondly, I will continue to look for long entries in commodities. Corn, soybeans, gold/silver, DBA etf (or DAG), and possibly natural gas are on my radar. Note I was stopped out nat gas yesterday, and that I believe agriculture commodities might be best. I have token positions in corn futures (Dec. contract), DAG, and SRS currently.

    There are several catalysts for action, including the FNM/FRE bailout vote, and the Consumer Sentiment # on Friday. I'm anxious to get back on the "right side", and will use the next few sessions to work into my desired trades.

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