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    Tuesday, July 1, 2008

    ISM catalyst?


    Today's ISM # at 10 am might provide an opportunity. Should I get a signal, I'm prepared to add to my small position (MTU long), as well as enter ZB futures short (bonds) at some point today. The worst case scenario is that the ISM trips me up by not allowing any signals to trigger for the remainder of the week. Regular readers know I am not fond of vacation shortened weeks as the action gets erratic, but I'll take signals as they present.

    There hasn't been a whole lot to discuss the last few weeks. For the most part, I've made a few dollars here and there, taking shots on short term trades. I still don't have a long term setup, which are most predictable, but see them close in gold/silver, corn, wheat, sugar, soybeans, cattle, coffee, and natural gas as longs. Readers know I was looking for a decline in stocks for the last month or so. I have not participated much in this latest rout, but stocks are still a short (in general), on rallies. Just as the downtrend re-exerted itself in stocks, the commodity bull continues higher. I won't fight the general direction of either market.

    As far as new positions, observers will notice I've been much less active recently. This is simply a result of less trade signals. The few I have traded have been marginal, at best. With regard to market action, I feel slightly off balance. I missed this sharp decline in stocks, even though it was my prognostication. This will temporarily destabilize a trader, and especially when it's his only source of income! Times like this call for patience and focus, and the confidence that I've seen this before and overcame it successfully. Being patient and losing small (today) allows me to rebalance. Until I'm on a roll again, I'm best served by managing position sizes accordingly. We could get July 4th fireworks as early as today, so keep an eye on the ticker!

    Quick reads:

    Since WWII

    Faber

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