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    Thursday, July 10, 2008

    Getting tested


    The last couple months have been frustrating. It's not that I've lost much money (in fact I'm about exactly where I was), but I was unable to capitalize on a very accurate 6-10 week short side trade in stocks. Take a look at the attached chart exactly when the index touched the 200 day MA. When the positions failed to get much traction, my system called for going the other way (long). Here we are, 6 weeks later, and 200 points lower on the SPX! Being on the right side, then changing, is something that will occur in every trader's career. The point is that I can only review, but not dwell, on my past decisions. I would not have done anything differently, so I am able to live with the results. My current positions are up one day, down the next, but I'm still in them unless stopped out. At this juncture, adding is not on the table, but I'm not in any type of panic situation, either.

    On a brighter note, I'm still very much in the game and ready for the next significant move. It's not that I have such great positions, but due to fine execution (taking advantage of spikes to get in/out) I'm not getting annhilated by huge "ranges" as we work lower. I'm an unsure whether or not my current trades work out positively, but I'm very sure of what I will do in any case. Another strength is my not adding to losers. Since I don't have traction, I'm happy "being small". I'm confident in my abilities to execute and my system, so my only goal is to keep playing the game the same way.

    I haven't had much to share with readers as each week seems to be a repeat of the prior one. For me, it's been a trying time, but I realize it's part of trading and I've been here a thousand times before. I encourage readers to stay the course in their own trading. In my opinion, unless one was short since mid-May, consistent profits have been very hard to come by.

    It is what it is, so we must accept it, and move on. In short, try not to make small problems into big ones, and work to get back on track.

    Interesting reads:
    • We discussed this about FNM
    • Goldman's win rate about 66%
    • TIPS are flawed

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