Today's Ideas:

    IMPORTANT : Below is what we're looking at currently, but pay attention to our UPDATES on the side of each page for actual entry/exit times and prices. Refresh pages often! You will witness our winners AND losers; something that is rare in our business.    TO VERIFY ACTUAL PRICES AND TIMES, PLEASE CLICK ON  A TICKER ENTRY TO THE RIGHT.  ALL TRADES, WHEN THEY OCCURED, ARE VIEWABLE.  Whenever possible, we have included the ETF symbol for those who are not experienced trading futures, etc.

    Thursday, May 1, 2008

    Morning update

    This could be the day to get very aggressive. I'm in 2 units of the SRS etf (2x IYR short) already, and have a winning trade. These are situations where, combined with a catalyst at 10 am (ISM #), I might be able to step into more of profitable positions. If traded correctly, one great trade can pay for lots of little losses. It's not how many times you win that determines success, rather it's how much make when you're correct. Not adding to losing trades, while stepping up into winning ones, is the best way to grow. That is not to say I add just because I'm in a winner, but that is the ideal situation to look for the next window to increase position size.

    We'll update the "positions page" later this morning, as I'm finally back in the office. For now, know that I have the SRS units, and have added a bit to the commodity etfs (Sugar, etc.) One last note, I might buy the SKF etf as an "add candidate" instead of SRS this morning depending on what signals first. Recall that since these are both highly correlated, it's essentially the same trade, and it's not as important which vehicle, as it is how we trade. Either SRS or SKF will likely be fine. Patience before the 10 am data is critical, as usual.

    I'm also happy to not have been stopped out of the Wheat futures position. I'll honor my stops, if hit, but for now I have some breathing room. The $US dollar is in focus, again, and seems to be the only influence on commodity prices. This relationship can, and probably will change at some point. Of course, the currency will always have some influence, but traders will look to own commodities again at some point. The trends are too strong to end in a flash. Along this theme, I'll continue to add to any "good" commodity holdings at every signal.

    I'm still being patient for the ZB (Treasury bond) short, and the JPY (yen futures) long signals. Even longer term than these, I'll look to get involved with some of the Japanese financial stocks at some point. YES, you heard me correctly, but we are still a ways off before that trade looks promising. The Japanese financial stocks appear to have much less downside than US banks and brokers, but with almost the same upside. This type risk/reward situation should be easy to grasp. As always, I'll inform readers as I take the trades!


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