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    Friday, May 2, 2008

    Friday morning update


    As I prepare for a short side trade in stocks, I have to remind myself to ignore the news, CNBC, etc. Just about every trader and pundit is now firmly convinced the $USD is going up for awhile, commodities down and financial stocks up. It might turn out to be correct, but again, the question is in what time frame? Bulls and bears in any market will both be correct, whether they make money or not is the issue. How much do they lose before they get into winners? In my opinion, I like to hear that there is now a consensus, as it provides the best trade entries. Know the difference between a trader, and an economist/analyst. I am very close to shorting "paper" again, including the 30 year treasury bond.

    Stops are critical, as all traders are wrong frequently. It doesn't matter who is right on a market call, only how much money was made or lost. I try not to spend too much time analyzing opinions, but rather staying focused on proper risk control and psychology. This goes back to trading from a position of strength and confidence. I've had several small losers in a row, and yet I'm unshaken (a couple small winners, too). Of course I'm anxious about getting my next great winner, but I know it will arrive, and probably very soon. Having conserved my capital properly allows me to stay balanced and ready to strike. Stay focused on your plan and nothing else, other than sticking to it from beginning to end, win or lose.

    I'll be shorting stocks in the next few days, and will share with readers as I trade. Get ready, and good luck!

     

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