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    Saturday, April 26, 2008

    Weekend thoughts



    The $US dollar is the driving force lately. Although it could be taking a break from it's nasty decline, my experience has shown that strong trends will re-exert their influence again at some point. Some things have changed recently, but this fact that trends continue, has not changed. I've reviewed my notes and game plan, and see no reason to ignore short side stock trades or long commodity plays. Things are not exactly as they were, but the overall game remains the same. One little adjustment I'll make is that I am not afraid to buy some stocks long when given good risk/reward. I will not chase them higher, after strength, but readers will recall my note that both bulls and bears should profit, depending on timing. The timing is where we need to focus in this environment. Long or short ideas must not be chased, as we should remain in a wide trading range.


    Keep an eye on the $USD chart. It will determine how all the other asset classes act. I believe it's futile to guess how the markets will react to the FED announcement, high oil prices, etc., and the only thing we can react to is price and direction. This is a time not to be married to one direction, as we are not trending in the intermediate term. Remember that we don't need huge moves to make money consistently. It is irrelevant where the next 500 point in the Dow are, as long as we're flexible. I would expect holding times for trades to be somewhat shorter in the near term. Profits will vanish if not booked, and timing (stochastics) will be invaluable.

     

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