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    Thursday, April 24, 2008

    Morning update



    It would be nice to see stocks pick a direction (down?). I remain short via the SDS etf, and will continue to add at each signal. Earnings last night, along with a few pieces of economic news today and tomorrow, could be a catalyst. The same theme is in play, shorting "paper" and long commodities. For today, shorting stocks seems to be the higher probability trade, so that'll be my focus.

    When charting, I always assume support and resistance will hold, until proven otherwise. However, they are just general areas, rather than specific price points, so I follow use them "loosely". For example, where is upside resistance in the S&P500? It depends on who we ask, but answers might be 1390, 1400, etc. For my purposes, it's the range from 1390-1400, giving lots of "wiggle room".

    Today and tomorrow will be critical in determining the next strong move for stocks. I'm prepared to make the best of a move down, while limiting risk if I'm early.

    I'm still on alert for a signal to short Treasury bonds, buy JPY (yen), and get long Cotton, Sugar, Coffee, Natural Gas, and possibly Silver. Today, my focus is primarily on shorting stocks. I feel this trade might be more timely than the commodity setups.

     

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