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    Wednesday, April 16, 2008

    Morning update



    Today could present a relatively simple setup before 11:30 am. I am waiting for a long signal in stocks as well as commodities, with the former more likely this morning. The focus will be on tech stocks, and the QLD etf. Execution of the plan is far more important than the actual names we trade, as long as they are highly correlated. Recall that I've also increased position sizes as a result of the lowered volatility. Still, overall risk to the portfolio is steady at 1% per position.
    Treasury bond (short side) and the Japanese yen (long side) signals are close but have not yet triggered. I especially don't want to miss the JPY setup as it's in a very strong trend. T bonds might take a few weeks to present an acceptable risk/reward entry, but could be the start of a multi-year decline. I won't be short the whole move, but will most likely be in and out many times in the context of the bigger move.

    Good luck and remember to keep it simple.

     

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