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    Tuesday, April 29, 2008

    Afternoon update

    For personal reasons, I've only been able to peek in and out on the markets this week. I should be in full swing by Thursday morning, but so far the SRS trade is working well. I'm still looking for windows to add to this position, as well as short stocks via the TWM etf.
    I just caught a clip of Dennis Gartman on CNBC, essentially calling the end to the commodity "bubble". This may or may not be the end of the hard asset bull market, but I'll continue to trade the long side until the moving averages turn down. Although I might be close to stopping out of the Wheat futures position, recall that commodities have made us a lot of money over the past 12 months. To be stopped out of a few trades, and get discouraged, is to lose focus on the big picture. It seems to me that a true professional, as Gartman is supposed to be, should know the first rule of trading, that nobody knows the top or bottom until way after the fact. He seems to be changing his long held beliefs, and reacting to gyrations, rather than trading his plan. Only time will tell, but it's important to be decisive, that's for sure.
    For those paying attention to the ticker, I mentioned that some more funds were "parked" in the Japanese yen today. This is not the trading call to go long Yen that we've been looking for. I don't buy the story that the $US dollar is going to reverse course for any substantial amount of time, so the yen parking is a long term (years?) holding. Interactive Brokers allows traders to park funds in several different currencies, and I have other holdings as well, both long and short. Please note the attached chart goes back 2 years.
    I'd expect the FED party tomorrow to quell trading, however, I'll act to add to SRS on any opportunity provided by this catalyst. I'll be in this position until next week for sure, unless stopped out. Adding to a winning situation is one of the best ways to improve returns, and is almost as critical as cutting losers. That's all for now, and I'll try to share thoughts tomorrow at some point.

     

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