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    Thursday, April 24, 2008

    Afternoon update

    Today was a rare day. When I first initiate a trade, it can go either for me or against. But, by the time I decide to step into a fourth unit, I am confident that I'm in control and trading from a position of strength. It doesn't always work, naturally, but these type situations rarely turn to a loss. By the time I decided that "something has changed" today, I was booking a small loss. In any case, I believe it might turn out to be the best decision, since oil finally cracked, along with the $US dollar getting much stronger. These were some major trends/themes we had been trading for the last 6+ months, and all of them were confirming a change, at least in the short run. Typically, I would let the stops take me out rather than trade out myself, but since the big picture was altered, I decided to reassess. I didn't panic out, I just decided to take advantage of the next window to exit. As I type, it was a good decision, as SDS is trading at 57.08 and I exited much higher.

    All trends change at some point, but I trade WITH them until it's verified. We might be witnessing an intermediate term change (long term is still the same), and if so, there is no reason to beat my head on the wall. I'll remain flexible to be long or short, and await the next signal. There is no room for hard set market opinions in trading. There is no shame in being wrong, only in staying wrong. The tip off today was the rotation I mentioned earlier, as well as the strength in the financial sector. With regard to the financial stocks, IF my trade was good, these stocks should have been among the weakest. Instead, the are the single strongest sector. This is how I decided to clip the trade early, at a small loss. I stand by this decision as the right thing to do, given the outside circumstances.

    Although they have not signaled an entry yet, the commodities I mentioned earlier are still candidates for a long side trade. It's too early to tell if the environment has changed, but if I honor stops, I can trade any signal. I am not rushing to "get a winner", or forcing a setup/signal. Nothing has changed in the overall process.

     

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